PART 5----“NON-PHYSICAL”
PREDATORY SITUATIONS!
As you will soon see, in addition to the never-ending and
more frequent physical predatory situations, you never have to leave your chair
to exploit many non-physical predatory situations.
As mentioned in some of my earlier articles, after spending
far too many winters on the East coast, I took Horace Greeley’s advise to heart
and went West even though no longer a “young man”. I had been in love with
Southern California ever since first visiting Del Mar in the early 70’s. And at
45 years old, I was more than ready for a much needed change in venue.
The turf had become my major wagering surface during the
70’s and remains so to this day. I couldn’t get enough of it on the East
coast. What’s more, I was tired of spending countless nights and countless
hours for countless years handicapping every single turf race as
if it would be taken off the turf and run over the dirt.
But I had little choice.
“Dirt figures” had to be put up on every turf horse that
had dirt races showing in his past performances. This was done just in case he didn’t scratch if the race moved to the dirt track, which it often
did. Unpredicted rainstorms that seemed to come from nowhere were very
commonplace, especially at Monmouth Park and Atlantic City during the hot and
humid summer.
In addition to those freak afternoon storms, if it rained
the night before, there were innumerable times when you didn’t know if they were
“on” or “off” the turf until an hour before post. And even if kept “on”, they’d
occasionally run the first of the 3 carded turf races over a suspect surface,
deem the grass course unsafe, and then move the other 2 turf races to the dirt.
On top of the double handicapping that had to be done for
nearly every turf race, I was quite tired of playing
a different dirt track every single day,
year-in and year-out. With moisture of some kind the “norm” every 2 to 4 days
thruout the year in the east, the track I was playing at any given time was
usually in a stage of getting wet or drying out. My daily dirt variants
sometimes took wild swings within the same day and nearly always within the same
week. The dirt surface could go from 6, 7 or 8 lengths slow to 6,
7 or 8 lengths fast within a day or two and quite often did!
Consistently dry and fast dirt tracks that yielded more consistent results
usually lasted no more than a day or two.
I felt that I had learned all that I was ever going to
learn about playing wet, sloppy, good, slow, muddy or frozen dirt tracks---both
in the afternoon and at night. I just wanted to bet dry and fast dirt
tracks and more importantly, firm and uniform turf courses sans “sink holes”.
The only major league racing where you can
wager on consistently dry dirt tracks and firm uniform turf courses is in
sunny Southern California----period! That simply can’t be said of
any other major racing circuit in this country. And after living
in the “Southland” for well over a decade, my only regret in making my 3000 mile
relocation to Southern California was that I didn’t do it much sooner.
The purpose of my dribble is to inform you that West coast predatory wagering situations pop up with the same frequency as
with the east coast, but the West coast holds an enormous
edge!
Since I have more than adequate tenure wagering on both
coasts, I’ve found that I get a chance to act upon predatory
situations many more times and with much more confidence when wagering at Santa Anita, Del Mar, or Hollywood Park than with
any other East coast track.
Why?
In a word, weather!
On the east coast with both surfaces ever-changing, I too often found myself backing out of a potentially
profitable predatory situation. This was done for very good reasons that saved me innumerable wasted wagers.
At times, I knew that the “predatory horse” I liked couldn’t “get” the surface that specific day because it wasn’t fast
(dirt) or firm (turf). He or she didn’t like it too wet, too heavy, too sloppy,
too soft, too muddy, too yielding, etc. Additionally, many jockeys rode poorly
in the mud or the slop. The always-aggressive rides they offered over fast dry
surfaces vanished as if they were 2 different riders. What’s more, a lot of
trainers simply didn’t “send” their horses on “off” tracks if they
weren’t allowed to scratch or were “stuck” (“hardboot” verbiage
for literally being forced to run by the state stewards when you
don’t want to run). This was true if they were “stuck” over a
sloppy dirt track, or forced to run over a yielding turf course.
The West coast virtually eliminated that problem for me, so
I rarely have to pass predatory situations due to weather. That said, it’s a
no-brainer that I can bet more of them.
Since were on the topic of wet weather, we’ll start off
with one of my favorites on either coast that begins with an “off”
track. In this specific predatory situation, the East coast offers many more
opportunities due to more wetness and therefore “off” tracks.
It sets up like this.
A well-bred dirt runner breaks their maiden in Special
Weight company in their 1st or 2nd lifetime start while
putting up a nice “number” for that class over a dry and fast dirt track.
In fact, their winning number was good enough on that winning afternoon to beat
other-than-2s or perhaps even better. Note I said minimally other-than-2s, not other-than-1s!
In addition to their big “number”, this maiden winner must
have gained ground at every running call, or at least from the ¼
pole to the wire. If you keep records of these situations for a few years,
you’ll find that ¼ pole to wire ground gainers with big winning
maiden “numbers” do repeat, but not nearly as often as runners who gain ground
at every running call!
Also needed for this predatory situation to work almost
flawlessly is that the winning maiden comes from a good non-betting barn that
gets more than their fair share of repeat winners. Whether those repeaters
occur from maiden to open company or open company to open company matters
little, just as long as the barn is fully capable of producing repeaters. One
or two morning drills are also needed to confirm soundness and readiness, but
those morning drills are usually a “given” with talented barns.
The last ingredient needed is the jockey. They must be the exact same rider who was aboard when putting up the
big “number” in the winning Maiden Special race. Jockeys of equal or greater
abilities don’t work------period!
To repeat the needed ingredients:
1---Broke Maiden Special Weight in 1st or 2nd lifetime start over a fast and dry dirt course.
2---Put up a big “number” that was good enough to beat at least other-than-2 allowance foes.
3---Gained ground at every running call.
4---Hails from a good non-betting barn that often produces
repeaters while simultaneously
not caring about the odds as would an equally
talented “betting barn” that “sends” only if the
“price is right”.
5---Same exact jockey remains in the saddle.
With the 5 ingredients clearly spelled out, an unspoken 6th ingredient always sweetens the pot in their
first race against other prior winners. The horse should physically look as
good as, if not better than, they did when breaking their maiden last out.
Fortunately for those handicappers unable to actually see
the horse and forced to bet “in the blind”, if the first 5 ingredients are all
present, the 6th unspoken one is usually a “given”!
Here’s the precise scenario where these
ingredients all come together for a profitable predatory situation with an incredibly high win percentage.
Let’s say our horse breaks his maiden on the first of the
month and does so as stated above over a dry and fast dirt track. He is then
wheeled back in 2 to 4 weeks in a conditioned allowance race for other-than-1s.
This is the next logical step up the class ladder for a Maiden Special Weight
winner. Even though his last out number says he can beat at least other-than-2s if not better, the good barn isn’t “piggish” nor reckless
and takes the path of least resistance in an other-than-1.
On race day, however, it rains and the track is “off”.
The surface could be wet-fast, sloppy, good, muddy or
whatever. And even though our predatory maidenbreaker might be bred on both the top and the bottom for the “off” going, the good barn scratches him!
Why?
Most likely it is the fear of unnecessary injury!
Since other-than-1’s are the most frequently
carded allowance race on any major circuit, the good barn is in no rush to injure a potentially good or even great runner. They know that
an identical other-than-1 allowance affair over a fast and dry track is only a few days away. Why push the issue this afternoon over an “off” track
with “downside risk” if you don’t have to? It isn’t as if today’s
race is a one-time annual occurrence like the Kentucky Derby.
Once he’s scratched, the stage set. Our scratched horse
finds his way into another other-than-1dirt race over a fast and dry track
within a week and makes it 2 in a row!
While you might think that you’ll always have to take 6-5
in this predatory situation, nothing could be further from the truth. To this
day I’m shocked that this scenario still offers an occasional 3, 4 or even 5-1!
You don’t find many plays like this, but if you follow this
scenario to the letter, your win percentage will positively floor you!
PART 6----MORE “NON-PHYSICAL” PREDATORY SITUATIONS
© Joe Takach 2003 |
